Date	Announcement / Change Log
April 12th, 2022		A Beta version of the Simboard has been released. This ranks horse by their simulated ROI in recent paid races and provides normalized speed, variance, and power ratings to assist in studying or comparing horses.
March 23rd, 2022		There is now a "MinGates" filter in the OpenRaces module. This will filter out any races where the number of registered horses than the selected value.
March 21th, 2022		There is now a "Fatigue" column and filter in the OpenRaces module. This totals the number of races for each horse within the past 12 hours. Use this to estimate your remaining stamina or exclude those that have already hit 12 races.
March 19th, 2022		There is now a icon in the open races report. This appears when a given horse is already registered for a race within the same Paid or Free category. This should help clarify that even if a race has an open status, the horse may not be eligible to register.
March 17th, 2022		Fixed bug with open races where it was only simming 11 horses for an open race. The Paid toggle will now exclusively show Free races when toggled off. The +ROI filter will now exclusively show -ROI races when toggled off A new filter for "Registered" has been added. When toggled on, only races you are already registered for will appear.
March 5th, 2022		The actual paid race results, accessed from the icon on the profile page, now utilizes the profile filters. If the filters are all set to *, it will return all class, length, and fee levels. You may multi-select any number of filter combinations to view the combined totals.
March 3rd, 2022		New documentation entry on the ZSIM flame Icons: Predicting ZED Flames
February 26th, 2022		New documentation entry on using the custom race simulator to study Speed vs. Variance: Speed Vs. Variance

Note: new Speed and DP numbers are currently under development. The recent update has brought significant changes and horses will need to be rediscovered for racing 3.0. Use caution in the interim.

ZED Run Simulator

Gain an edge in ZED Run digital horse racing

Get Started

Pre-Race Simulation

Perform a 10,000 run simulation of any race to know your expected win rate, ROI, and the likelihood that you will flame, all before it runs or the race registration closes. Choose the most profitable race to enter, or avoid the race entirely. Check out a race simulation report and more details here

Automate your Profits

ZSIM will import all open races from ZED RUN and tell you the exact race IDs to enter based on your projected ROI. You'll also be given a deep link to the ZED Run site for the specific race, simplifying the registration process. Check out how accurate the ZSIM predictions are here.

Avoid Donkeys

A ZSIM Profile is like a CARFAX for your ZED Run NFT-based digital horse. ZSIM runs hundreds of thousands of simulations to generate a horse profile containing expected win rates and ROI at every class, distance, and fee level. Take the guess work out of your analysis without risking money. See more.

Horse Profiler

ZSIM performs hundreds of thousands of simulations against all class, fee, and distance combinations to predict where a horse can best compete. These simulation results are compiled into a profile report, enabling you to assess the horse at a glance.

Know your expected win percentage and ROI at any level of competition
Using the simulated class points per race, develop easy to follow declassing strategies
Allow ZSIM to handle all data transformation, as it automatically adjusts the profile for a recency bias in field strength
Gain early insights with how your horse's speed and deviation compares to all other horses within the class/length/fee group

Match Up Simulator

ZSIM also allows you to zero in on individual races. These can be actual ZED Run races or match ups you design with digtal horses of your choosing. For each matchup, ZSIM will run a 10,000 race simulation.

Better understand a race's unique context with a more granular horse vs. horse analysis
Does the top of the field have similar win rates? Or, are there horses with large 5-10% advantages over the rest of the field?
Are you entering races where your predicted win rate is under 8%, or even worse, 2.5%??
Predict your in the money or declassing percentage rate (finishing 8th-12th)
Want to know how three horses would fair against each other at 1200m? Throw them into a custom matchup simulation and see

ZSIM Prediction%	Total Race Entries	Actual Wins	Actual Win%
0%	4,855	35	.72%
1%	16,445	188	1.1%
2%	23,561	490	2.1%
3%	31,265	923	3.0%
4%	38,713	1,553	4.0%
5%	46,230	2,258	4.9%
6%	53,092	3,236	6.1%
7%	57,026	4,072	7.1%
8%	57,905	4,997	8.6%
9%	55,052	5,205	9.5%
10%	50,438	5,340	10.6%
11%	43,878	4,889	11.1%
12%	36,376	4,444	12.2%
13%	29,873	4,031	13.5%
14%	23,194	3,318	14.3%
15%	17,912	2,698	15.1%
16%	13,344	2,103	15.8%
17%	9,817	1,724	17.6%
18%	7,194	1,353	18.8%
19%	5,290	1,045	19.8%
20%	3,722	722	19.4%
21%	2,731	573	21.0%
22%	1,990	451	22.7%
23%	1,465	351	24.0%
24%	1,015	274	27.0%
25%	707	175	24.8%
26%	557	153	27.5%
27%	363	100	27.5%
28%+	886	276	31.0%

Simulation vs. Reality

Focusing on actual win/loss records and raw finish times can provide limited data and leave an incomplete picture. It's also a challenge to adjust for race field strength, especially from a win/loss perspective, and then extrapolate it's application to other class and fee levels without taking undue risk. Although ZSIM relies on actual race and horse data, it can use various horse attributes and data from free or paid races to create a surprisingly accurate model.

The chart to the left outlines the model's predictive power. In a recent sampling of over 600,000 race entries, the ZSIM model gave each horse a predicted win%. When rounded to the nearest whole percent, you can see how horses in that particular group faired in reality.

For example, there were 46,230 horses with a ZSIM predicted win rate of 5% (4.50% to 5.49% rounded to 5%). The horses that fell into the 5% bucket had an actual win rate of 4.9%. This test was performed against paid races at all fee and class levels.